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A Multidisciplinary Think Tank

Economic Forecasting

July 23, 2026

Do Vibes Predict Recessions? What a New San Francisco Fed Paper Tells Us About Sentiment as an Early-Warning Signal

A new San Francisco Fed working paper puts a defensible number on the marginal recession-forecasting content of soft data. Continue reading

Economics & Finance, Society

Consumer Sentiment, Economic Forecasting, Federal Reserve, Recession

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Recent Posts

Beijing Writes Its Own Rules for Exporting AI Models, Using Washington’s Threshold
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Why the AI Giants Are Suddenly Chasing Law Firms
87% of General Counsel Already Use AI. The Case for Law Firms Moving Faster.

Recent Posts

Beijing Writes Its Own Rules for Exporting AI Models, Using Washington’s Threshold
AI Is Paying Off. Storage Is About to Decide Who Can Keep Up.
Three Rivals Agreed to Slow AI Down in a Single Morning. What Did They Actually Agree To?

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