Federal Reserve
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Do Vibes Predict Recessions? What a New San Francisco Fed Paper Tells Us About Sentiment as an Early-Warning Signal
A new San Francisco Fed working paper puts a defensible number on the marginal recession-forecasting content of soft data. Continue reading
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May JOLTS Beats Consensus by 294,000 as Warsh Uses Sintra to Cement the End of Forward Guidance: An Economic Look at the July 29 Rate Debate
Job openings held near a two-year high in May 2026, running about 294,000 above consensus, while new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh used his Sintra debut on July 1 to… Continue reading
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Warsh’s First Fed Meeting Flips the 2026 Outlook From Cut to Hike: An Economic Look at the New Communications Framework, the May 4.2% CPI Print, and What Borrowers, Savers, and Investors Should Track Next
In his first meeting as Federal Reserve chair, Kevin Warsh held rates at 3.50-3.75 percent, slashed the policy statement to roughly 132 words… Continue reading
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The Strong Jobs Report Hides a Quieter Story: AI Is Erasing 16,000 US Jobs Every Month
The US added 172,000 jobs in May 2026, more than double the consensus forecast. Continue reading
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